Although the overall trend of steel city in late April is relatively weak, but due to the larger increase at the beginning of the month, the price of rebar in most areas is still more than 4000 yuan/ton. Considering that the steel price at its peak of over 4500 yuan/ton last year greatly squeezed the profits of upstream and downstream, thus causing a rebound in all aspects, the room for continued increase of steel price in May and even in the second half of the year will be relatively limited, and the rate of increase will be significantly slowed down.
Market offer is firm, there is steel factor that is inevitable, but more is because of downstream "buy go up do not buy fall" state of mind, the price drops more and more do not move goods, so first steady offer may be the best choice at the moment.
Before the Spring Festival of 2018, the market expects that the steel production restriction in the heating season will lead to the reduction of steel supply, slow inventory accumulation, and the shutdown of downstream heating season will lead to the concentrated outbreak of demand after the Spring Festival, and the mismatch between supply and demand will drive up the price. However, during the Spring Festival period, the social inventory exceeded the expectation. After the Lantern Festival in early march, the inventory reached a record high, while the steel mill inventory continued to rise throughout march, exceeding the same period in the last two years. Pre-holiday optimism was hit, with Shanghai thread spot prices falling 13.8% to 3,730 yuan per ton from 4,330 yuan at the start of the year. On March 23-26, the United States announced the imposition of tariffs on steel imports, and trade war fears pushed steel prices further down to the year's low of 3,510 yuan per ton.
This morning, the qingshan agent still reported: 304 narrow-band march futures: 13300,304 four or five feet big board march futures 13400,316 L march futures 19800, the amount of the report to be approved! The weather vane is so calm, the market dare not ask for trouble. Chengde merchants can only support the spot price, 304 four or five feet big board for 13,600 yuan/ton. But it said February futures could offer a discount of 100 yuan, while march futures could offer a discount of 200 yuan. It seems that the temptation of futures again!